62 Dermatologists Evaluated 318 Ingredients, Only 23 Earned Consensus, Retinoids Topped 5 of 7 Concerns

The skincare ingredient market introduces new breakthrough compounds every season. But how many of those ingredients would dermatologists actually agree on? A Delphi consensus study published in the Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology (JAAD) offers a rare answer from the field’s own experts.

From 318 to 23

Researchers began with 318 commercially available skincare ingredients. An initial panel of 17 experts narrowed this to 83 candidates. Then 62 cosmetic dermatologists from 43 institutions completed two rounds of Delphi voting to determine which ingredients had sufficient evidence for recommendation.

Only 23 survived. The ingredients were evaluated across seven common skin concerns: fine lines and wrinkles, acne, redness, dark spots, large pores, dry skin, and oily skin.

Retinoids Dominated the Results

Retinoids (retinol, tretinoin, and related compounds) earned recommendations for five of seven skin concerns: fine lines, acne, dark spots, large pores, and oily skin. Over 96% of panelists recommended retinoids for anti-aging and acne treatment.

Mineral sunscreen also achieved 96.8% consensus for preventing fine lines, wrinkles, and managing redness.

The Consensus Tier

Most consensus ingredients were backed by level 1b or 2b evidence. The key players and their recommended domains:

Retinoids: fine lines, acne, pigmentation, pores, oiliness. Vitamin C: fine lines, wrinkles, dark spots. Niacinamide: redness, dark spots. Azelaic acid: acne, dark spots. Glycolic acid: acne, dark spots. Salicylic acid: acne, oily skin. Benzoyl peroxide: acne, oily skin.

What 295 Rejections Actually Mean

The Delphi method requires strong agreement across experts, not just promising results from individual studies. An ingredient with positive data from a single trial but inconsistent results across the literature would not achieve consensus. Hyaluronic acid, peptides, and ceramides, while widely used and commercially successful, appear to have fallen into this gap.

This does not render them useless. It means the evidence base is not yet robust enough for a supermajority of dermatologists to recommend them with confidence across specific skin concerns.

A Practical Takeaway

This study answers “what should I prioritize” more than “what should I use.” Build your routine around retinoids, sunscreen, and vitamin C as the evidence-backed core. Then layer in one or two targeted actives based on your individual concerns: salicylic acid for acne-prone skin, niacinamide for redness, glycolic acid for texture.

Retinol serums typically range from $15 to $60, vitamin C serums $12 to $50, and mineral sunscreens $12 to $35. A complete evidence-backed core routine can be assembled for $40 to $100 per month.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are all 23 consensus ingredients? The published key consensus ingredients include retinoids, mineral sunscreen, vitamin C, niacinamide, glycolic acid, azelaic acid, salicylic acid, and benzoyl peroxide. The complete list of all 23 is available in the full JAAD publication.

Which popular ingredients did not make the list? 295 out of 318 ingredients did not achieve consensus. This likely includes hyaluronic acid, peptides, and ceramides. Not reaching consensus does not mean these ingredients are ineffective. It means the evidence was not strong enough to generate agreement across the full expert panel.

Should this study change my skincare routine? Rather than overhauling your routine, use it as a priority framework. If retinoids, sunscreen, and vitamin C are the top three, build your core around them and add targeted ingredients based on your specific concerns.